Wednesday, May 07, 2025
Improved Mortality Model
[covid retrospective ; boring]
A "quick" model of excess mortality by country which accounts for cohort history. (Unfortunately this is calendar year rather than summer to summer since it's hard to get long-term data for the latter.)
The model applies each year's actual demographics (age and gender) to expected mortality based on birth year, death year, and age (summed then exponentiated). The model parameters, fully graphed below, are inferred via probability optimization.
Excess rate is calculated from the actual deaths less expected deaths using the (highly) smoothed death year factor trendline instead of the raw death year factor.
These are the underlying models:
